Brazil: Trade Liberalization & Fertility Rates

Objective: This study delves into how the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil, an economic shock, influenced marriage and fertility choices.
Context: The policy shift led to a negative labor market impact, especially in regions facing intense foreign competition.

Brazil’s Economy in the 1990s: Faced a significant transition due to trade liberalization.
Impact: While reducing consumer goods prices, it adversely affected employment in protected industries, disproportionately impacting men.

Decreased Likelihood of Childbearing:
- Women in areas with high exposure to international competition showed reduced fertility.
- This effect continued for two decades post-liberalization.
- Predominantly driven by a decline in young men’s employment rate.
Lack of Impact from Women’s Employment:
- Changes in women’s job opportunities did not significantly influence fertility decisions.
- Indicates a complex interplay between economic factors and reproductive choices.
Longevity of Effects:
- The study underscores the enduring nature of such economic changes on social choices.

Stability in Marriage Rates:
- Contrary to expectations, trade liberalization didn’t significantly alter marriage rates.
- This finding challenges traditional economic theories linking male employment to marriage propensity.
Societal Implications:
- Suggests a shift in societal norms or attitudes towards marriage, independent of economic conditions.

Causal Mediation Analysis: Utilized to dissect the relationship between employment shifts and social decisions.
Regional Comparative Study: Examined varying impacts across different Brazilian regions, pre- and post-trade policy change.

Economic Policy and Social Dynamics:
- Illustrates how macroeconomic policies can have deep-rooted effects on societal structures and personal choices.
- Emphasizes the need for a holistic view when implementing significant economic reforms.
Gender-Specific Impacts:
- Highlights how economic shifts can differentially affect men and women, leading to varied social outcomes.
Policy Insights:
- Offers crucial insights for policymakers about the unintended social consequences of economic decisions.

Summary: The research provides a nuanced understanding of how economic policies like trade liberalization can have far-reaching and lasting effects on social structures, particularly in terms of fertility and marriage.
Significance: It underscores the importance of considering these broader impacts when crafting economic policies, highlighting the intricate connection between economics and societal norms.